Pacific Northwest Species Change

Modelling Approach

Our modelling approach combines an understanding of the climatic constraints imposed on photosynthesis throughout the year with the efficiency of an automated decision-tree analysis to distinguish those climatic factors that separate the current and future distributions of a host of trees species from that of the most widely distributed (Douglas-fir). This modeling approach provides information to predict how 25 species differ in their sensitivity to frost, drought, suboptimal temperatures, and atmospheric humidity deficits in different seasons.  If we are successful in predicting the current distributions of target species recorded on field survey plots, we should be able to predict where a species might be stressed under a changing climate and how it's distribution might shift.






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Current range models